Polls
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US
Polls May Shape Biden’s Future. Are They Up to the Job?
The president’s chances increasingly rely on the possibility that the polls are misfiring.
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Opinion
No Poll Can Tell Biden What He Needs to Hear
“Will this be the thing that causes his voters to abandon him? How much will this hurt his numbers?” are…
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Opinion
I Was a Republican Partisan. It Altered the Way I Saw the World.
I’m having the strongest sense of déjà vu. In 2012, I was a Republican partisan. This was when I was…
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US
Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations
He has underperformed the polls in each of the first three contests.
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Opinion
A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election
Recent general-election polling has generally shown Donald Trump maintaining a slight lead over President Biden. Yet many of those polls…
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US
Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously
Almost all the polling shows the same pattern. Could the coming campaign restore Democrats’ usual advantage?
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US
The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It
A poll can be very close to the actual result but miss the key story line. We’ll try new question…
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World
In Ecuador, an Assassination Brings a Turning Point
Genevieve Glatsky, a reporter for the Andes bureau, discussed the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate who exposed governmental…
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US
How Did We Do? A Review of 2022 Before Our First Poll of 2023.
Trying to learn from a strong midterm run as we start surveying the G.O.P. primary.
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US
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative
The errant surveys spooked some candidates into spending more money than necessary, and diverted help from others who otherwise had…